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MLB Series Betting- Florida at New York Mets

MLB Series Betting- Florida at New York Mets

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MLB Series Betting- Florida at New York Mets


2008-08-08

When the 2008 season began, one of these teams was supposed to be a player in the NL East race and the other was thought to pile up losses and be a punching bag for the other contenders in the division. Instead, both are in a virtual dead head heat, trying to chase down last year’s champion Philadelphia. Seeing we have made our way past the first week of August, this series takes on great significance in shaping how the NL East will shake out. (Free Friday Foxsheet for this big series)

The New York Mets (60-54, -6.3 units) received a boost as David Wright hit a walk-off home run yesterday, to help them win series over shameful San Diego. While yesterday’s homer helps lighten the mood in Mets clubhouse, the fact remains they have lost seven of 10 and trail the Phillies by two in the loss column. Besides base-running blunders and the usual Mets lack of focus, the loss of Billy Wagner has placed too many pitchers in the bullpen into unfamiliar roles and they are not coming thru.

Florida (61-54, +18.8) is tied with New York in the loss column and have been the best bet in the National League a good portion of the season. In addition, they have been among the leading Over wagers all year, due to binges of hitting and faulty bullpen work on more than one occasion.

Ricky Nolasco (11-6, 3.91, 1.184 WHIP) has emerged as the ace of the staff for Florida with his variety of breaking balls. He’s been ringing up the strikeouts for most of the season and his control has been exceptional since June, with 6.5 to 1 punch-outs to walks ratio. With Sportsbook.com establishing the Marlins as +120 underdogs, with total of Un8.5, Nolasco and Florida hold value, since they are 12-5 when not favored. New York is 39-22 against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better and has their own good luck charm in Oliver Perez (7-7, 4.12, 1.387). Though Perez’s numbers are not often impressive, he and the Mets thrive against big swingers, with 38-20 record vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a game.

Game 1 Edge: Marlins

Word has not officially been passed on who will start for the disabled John Maine; nonetheless most expect it to be it to be 29-year old right-hander Brian Stokes. He pitched in the big leagues with Tampa Bay the last two seasons and is 10-8 with a 4.41 ERA in 23 games (22 starts) at Triple-A New Orleans. The Mets may need to fall back on the fact they are 113-69 at Shea Stadium vs. good power teams, averaging 1.25 or more home runs a game. Florida will counter with Scott Olson (6-6, 3.87, 1.282) who has pitched in some hard luck with 11 no-decisions. Olson almost certainly would have a winning record, however has undermined himself as well, reaching high pitch counters in the fifth of sixth innings, having to be taken out. Olson can be flat out nasty on left-hand batters (.173 BA), expect New York to load up with right-hand hitters. He and the Marlins are 11-6 this season facing right-hand hurlers.

Game 2 Edge: Marlins

On May 31, most Mets observers figured Mike Pelphrey (10-7, 3.85, 1.440) was making his final start with the big club, with Pedro Martinez coming off the DL. Most thought it was a make or break effort for the 6’7 right-hander and he gave a very good performance in holding the Dodgers to two runs over seven innings, in a no-decision Mets 3-2 win. Since that time, Pelphrey is 8-1 (Mets 10-2) and his ERA has dropped over a run. He’s been especially effective as Shea with 2.29 ERA, with the Metropolitans winning 8 of his 12 home starts. Josh Johnson (2-0, 3.34, 1.517) will be the mound opponent in the series finale. After coming off the DL, Johnson has helped Florida win all five of his starts, not allowing more than four runs in any outing. The Marlins come into this series 19-12 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season.

Game 3 Edge: Mets

This should be a tremendous series with great intensity. New York has more pressure, as they were expected to be in this position, while Florida is playing with house money just staying in the chase. Having just taken series from Phillies and posting .500 record on the road this season, will give the nod to Florida to win the series with 11-11 record at Shea Stadium the last three years.

Sportsbook.com series odds: Marlins +140, Mets -180
StatFox Edge Pick: Florida
2008 Record – 9-5



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