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March Madness Bracket
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MLB: Getaway day MLB pitcher trends2010-06-17
Thursday wraps up one set of many interleague series’ before the teams move on to another this weekend. Seven of the 11 games on the Thursday betting board are set for evening start times. Let’s take a look at some of the best StatFox Power Trends available for those games regarding the starting pitchers or the managers. Get a full look at all of today’s lines and key betting information on the GAME MATCHUPS page of Sportsbook.com.
(959) CHI WHITE SOX (BUEHRLE) at (960) PITTSBURGH (OHLENDORF) 7:05 PM
The White Sox have taken the first two games of the series in Pittsburgh, extending the Prates losing streak to 10 games. The hosts will likely need to hold Chicago to a low run total to win, since Pittsburgh has only scored 29 runs during the skid. Fortunately, there’s a significant UNDER trend of Ross Ohlendorf, the Pirates starter:
* OHLENDORF is 14-2 UNDER (+11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was OHLENDORF 2.7, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*)
(961) NY METS (DICKEY) at (962) CLEVELAND (WESTBROOK) 7:05 PM
The Mets have continued their strong surge in the N.L. East by taking the first two games in Cleveland. New York is 17-5 in its last 22 games and comes into Thursday’s contest on a 6-game winning streak. By the looks of this trend on Indians skipper Manny Acta and R.A. Dickey’s 2.78 ERA to date for the Mets, the streak should continue.
* ACTA is 13-62 (-43.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better in all games he has managed since 1997. The average score was ACTA 3.0, OPPONENT 5.2 - (Rating = 3*)
(963) PHILADELPHIA (KENDRICK) at (964) NY YANKEES (PETTITTE) 7:05 PM
The Yankees and Phillies have split a pair of spirited games between the last two champions of Major League Baseball. Thursday’s series finale matches Kyle Kendrick for Philadelphia versus Andy Pettitte for host New York. Kendrick has proven a trendy OVER pitcher, while Pettitte has produced UNDER’s regularly. This is the highest rated trend though:
*KENDRICK is 22-6 OVER (+15.7 Units) after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was KENDRICK 6.5, OPPONENT 5.3 - (Rating = 2*)
(965) TEXAS (NIPPERT) at (966) FLORIDA (NOLASCO) 7:10 PM
The Rangers have gotten hotter than a summer day in Texas of late, winning seven of their last eight games to put a 2-game cushion between themselves and the Angels in the A.L. West. On Thursday, the Rangers will look for a 3-game sweep of the Marlins in Florida. The pitching matchup pits Dustin Nippert versus Ricky Nolasco.
*NOLASCO has been hit hard in his last five starts, with a WHIP of 1.96 and a record of 1-4 (Team’s Record). The average score was NOLASCO 4.0, OPPONENTS 6.6 – (Rating = 1*)
(967) TAMPA BAY (SHIELDS) at (968) ATLANTA (HUDSON) 7:10 PM
One of the other highlight series’ this week besides Phillies-Yankees has been that between the Rays and Braves. It has lived up to billing too, with the teams splitting the first two games. It could be edge to Atlanta on Thursday, since James Shields, the Tampa starter has been rocked hard for 23 runs in 15-2/3 innings in his last three starts, while Braves’ hurler Tim Hudson can fall back on this powerful angle:
*HUDSON is 64-27 (+29.3 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was HUDSON 4.8, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 1*)
(969) ARIZONA (HAREN) at (970) BOSTON (LACKEY) 6:10 PM
The Diamondbacks may be buried at the bottom of the N.L. West with little chance to emerge, and are just 9-24 on the road this season, but according to this strong angles regarding Thursday’s starter Dan Haren, they at least have a decent shot of avoiding a sweep at Boston.
*HAREN is 25-9 (+15.5 Units) against the money line against AL East opponents since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was HAREN 6.1, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)
(971) HOUSTON (MYERS) at (972) KANSAS CITY (LEREW) 8:10 PM
The Astros and Royals wrap up a 3-game set in Kansas City with Brett Myers taking the hill for Houston and Anthony Lerew, called up from Triple-A Omaha, toeing the rubber for the hosts. The Royals are -115 favorites, but…
*MYERS is 13-6 (+9.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) The average score was MYERS 5.2, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*)
MLB: MLB Series Betting- Minnesota at Kansas City2010-04-23
The Minnesota Twins were picked to win the Central Division of the American League and they have gotten off to the kind of start that has propelled them right to the top with an 11-5 record. The Twins just completed their first-ever homestand at Target Field with 6-3 record and head back on the road where they have begun the year 5-2.
Kansas City was not picked to win the division and is not considered to be a contender. Thus far the Royals have also played to form with a 6-9 record. Don’t blame the offense; Kansas City is fourth in the AL in runs scored at 4.7. The culprit has been the relief pitching which has been atrocious with 6.95 ERA and five blown saves in less than three weeks.
These teams met last week in the Twin Cities with Minnesota winning the series and the Twins will look to go 5-0 in series to start 2010, as they embark on nine game road trip.
Minnesota has been spectacular as series starter with a 38-16 record playing on Friday’s over the last three seasons. They will give the ball to Carl Pavano (2-1, 4.96 ERA, 1.347 WHIP) who was roughed up for seven runs and 11 hits in 3 1/3 innings in last week’s 10-5 loss to the Royals, however he is 7-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last two seasons, thanks to run support of eight runs an outing. (Team's Record)
Kansas City is a +123 ML underdog with total Ov9.5 at Sportsbook.com and will start Gil Meche (0-1). The right-hander has been completely ineffective as seen with 11.58 ERA and WHIP of 2.358.
“Two games in a row where I can’t get away from the big inning, both happening early in the ballgame,” Meche said. “You’ve got to make better pitches. … If you don’t do that, you’re going to pay for it.” The Royals are the complete opposite of their opponent with 7-21 mark on Friday’s.
Game 1 Edge: Minnesota
The Kansas City offense has clicked much better with the much-traveled and injured Scott Podsednik being in the lineup. Podsednik is batting robust .449 and has also taken eight walks in his 13 starts. He’s also been a base-running thief, stealing seven of eight in 2010.
"I don't think there's a coincidence at all," manager Trey Hillman said of Podsednik being out of the lineup in two losses to Toronto this week. "You take that speed [out] of the lineup and you take that kind of on-base percentage, the threat of stealing a base, it's important, just because of the pace that he's kept up to this point.”
The Royals begin the series 2-4 at Kauffman Stadium and are horrendous 16-37 at home since last year and hand the horsehide to Luke Hochevar (2-0, 2.89, 1.393). The 26-year old righty was not at his best against the Twins last Sunday, with five walks along with six hits in his six innings, but he pitched his way out of several jams and got the win.
The old baseball pitching edict of “throw strikes” is a big reason why the Twins have started so well. Coming into the weekend the pitching staff has yielded a Major League-low 37 bases on balls, which helps prevents big innings.
Minnesota has won their last 18 of 23 against teams with losing records and will start Nick Blackburn (1-1, 6.05, 1.499). The deliberate right-hander is off two shaky starts (10 earned runs in 12 2/3 innings) and has to do a better job locating pitches, being tagged for six home runs in fewer than 20 innings this season. Blackburn and the Twinkies are 7-19 in his roads starts.
Game 2 Edge: Kansas City
There was a great deal of concern about Minnesota bullpen once closer Joe Nathan went down. To this point those concerns are unwarranted with 2.62 ERA, six for six in save chances and better than 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. If Kevin Slowey (2-1, 2.45, 1.255) can pitch like his last outing, the pen will be well-rested. Slowey has an easy arm motion and excellent feel for how to pitch and threw eight innings of one run; five-hit ball with 9 K’s and no walks.
In the series finale, Kansas City counters with Brian Bannister (0-1, 4.59, 1.302) who commands a 90-ish fastball that has late movement and curveball that has big sweeping motion. He pitched fairly well in first two starts in allowing three runs over 12+ innings but bullpen turned those potential wins into no-decision defeats. Bannister was smacked around at Toronto, which he blamed on poor mental preparation.
Game 3 Edge: Minnesota
For this week’s series selection, we bring in Rocky Atkinson of Rocketman Sports.com.
“I feel like Minnesota will win this series against Kansas City this weekend. Minnesota is 26-13 overall vs Kansas City the past 3 years including a very nice 14-4 at Kansas City. The key to this series is going to be the bullpens. Minnesota bullpen has a 2.62 ERA overall this year and a 1.45 ERA on the road this season. The Kansas City bullpen on the other hand, has been ripped this year with a 6.95 ERA overall and an 8.41 ERA at home on the season. Minnesota is third in runs scored and the Royals are dead last in the American League in runs allowed.”
Sportsbook.com series odds: Minnesota -155, Kansas City +125
StatFox Edge Pick: Minnesota
2010 Record – 1-1
MLB: Dodgers favored at home over soaring Cardinals 2009-08-19
Last night’s St. Louis and Los Angeles contest had all the drama and intensity of a playoff game, with the Cardinals coming out on top 3-2 as -160 money line road favorites behind Chris Carpenter. This evening, the roles will be reversed, with the Dodgers the larger favorite and trying to find the magic formula that worked earlier this season. Early numbers show nearly 70% of bettors at Sportsbook.com are backing the host favorites.
The Dodgers (70-49, +11.2 units) have lost seven of 10 games, seeing their lead in the NL West dwindle to 4.5-games and now have the same amount of losses as Philadelphia in the National League, jeopardizing their hold of the best record in the senior circuit.
It’s been an impotent offense that has hurt the Dodgers. Take away the two nine run explosions that resulted in victories and L.A. has totaled 20 runs in the other eight games (2.5 runs per outing). Matters have been made worse with the starting pitchers being mildly ineffective and injuries creeping up.
Tonight’s starter, Chad Billingsley (11-6, 3.73 ERA) hasn’t pitched in 11 days due to left hamstring strain and will have to be watched cautiously. Billingsley hasn’t had much success against St. Louis with 0-2 record, with a 5.23 ERA in four starts, including being rocked for six runs and walking six in 5 2/3 innings of a 10-0 Redbirds whitewashing. The Dodgers have lost Billingsley’s last four home starts against teams with winning record.
St. Louis (68-52, +6.2 units) is making all those trade deadline pickups work and has won nine of its last 10 contests. Manager Tony LaRussa’s offense has been improved with Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa, however the pitching has been brilliant in allowing just over three runs per game during this stretch.
It was evident in last night’s contest that the confidence the Cardinals are playing with and tonight’s starter Mitchell Boggs (1-1, 3.78) has given the Cards a chance to win. Though he was roughed up in suffering his first loss of the season last week against Cincinnati, the 25-year old right-hander has kept his team in the game and they have won five of his six starts in 2009. Boggs would become a permanent part of the rotation, but as has been the case in the past, 20 walks in just over 33 innings has made him less than trustworthy.
The Dodgers are 12-3 revenging a one run loss this season and sports bettors have moved them from -160 money line favorites at Sportsbook.com to -180, with the total Un8.5. L.A. has won 60 of last 86 games as a home favorite and is 12-4 OVER after allowing four runs or less in four straight games this season.
St. Louis is a decided underdog, yet is 14-3 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 and has the same record when they have an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games this season.
This battle of division leaders is set for 7:10 Pacific and is available for viewing in local markets with the Cards 16-6 UNDER after a win by two runs or less this season.
StatFox Power Line – L.A. Dodgers -188